Space-time dynamics analysis of the cattle herd in the counties of southern Brazil

Abstract

The study analyzed spatio-temporal variations in the number of cattle in southern Brazil counties, considering the scarcity of scientific productions of this nature and limitations of the existing literature, which emphasizes analyzes of bovine productions at the regional or state level of the country. Thus, data about cattle herd in the counties of this region were collected from Municipal Livestock Production from 1998 to 2017 using SIDRA-IBGE API. The global I and G indices of Moran and Getis-Ord, respectively, were applied to observe whether neighboring counties shared cattle production. Additionally, the local Moran I index was used for analyzes of cluster and outlier. Finally, relative growth rates and center of gravity were determined to analyze the growth and direction of the cattle herd (respectively). The results of this manuscript showed that cattle production followed a spatial pattern that reflects regional aptitude, varying slightly over time. The southern regions that concentrate counties with high and low growth of cattle are West Catarinense, Northwest Rio-Grandense, Vale do Itajaí, Metropolitan of Porto Alegre, Southwest Paranaense, South Catarinense, North Pioneiro Paranaense and Northeast Rio-Grandense.While the municipalities with low cattle growth were more concentrated in North Central Paranaense, Metropolitana de Porto Alegre and Northwest Paranaense. The equilibrium points of bovine production have changed over time, and in the last periods of the analysis, the number of cattle tended to move from the south to the north of the South Region. These results are important for public policies elaboration that recognize the counties particularities in terms of advancement, stagnation and /or regression of the cattle herd in the South of Brazil.